Key Statistics Poland (GUS) Data for April 2026:
- Year-over-Year (YoY): +3.1% (forecast: +4.1%)
- Month-over-Month (MoM): -7.4% (forecast: -8.0%)
- Seasonally Adjusted: +2.5% YoY and -2.6% MoM
Sector Breakdown
Positive momentum was observed in 18 out of 34 major industrial divisions. The most significant gains were recorded in:
- Coal mining (+27.1%)
- Transport equipment manufacturing (+15.5%)
- Waste management (+15.3%)
- Energy and gas supply (+11.6%)
Conversely, 16 sectors experienced downturns. The most notable declines hit machinery repair (-4.0%), beverage production (-3.8%), furniture manufacturing (-3.4%), and the automotive industry (-2.4%).
Expert Insights
- ING Bank Śląski: Analysts note that the industrial rebound is narrowing (down from 28 growing sectors in March). They suggest that Q2 marks a return to moderate dynamics after early-year inventory stockpiling. Primary risks include economic stagnation in Germany, mounting import pressure from China, and elevated costs tied to the Middle East conflict. Upcoming public and military investments are expected to act as a buffer.
- Bank Pekao: Interestingly, Pekao views the data as a positive surprise. They highlight a significant upward revision to March’s Producer Price Index (PPI), implying that the previous month’s real growth was slower than originally reported. Thus, April’s reading confirms a steady, albeit slow, upward trend. Still, they warn that the Gulf war and global oil shocks will inflate production costs and squeeze corporate margins.
- PKO BP: Economists describe the current landscape as a „selective recovery.” Energy and investment-driven sectors are thriving, while export-oriented branches are struggling with weak foreign demand. Public infrastructure spending is projected to support the industry later this year, but the looming threat of higher energy and raw material prices remains a major risk for energy-intensive sectors.
