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Oil Prices Ease on Iran Diplomacy Hopes as Markets Weigh Potential US Diesel Export Controls

Executive Summary

Crude futures dipped from recent gains as Iran expressed willingness for diplomatic talks. Investors are also digesting conflicting reports regarding potential US restrictions on diesel exports.

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Oil prices edged lower on Thursday, retreating from a 4 per cent surge in the previous session after Iranian officials signaled an ongoing openness to diplomatic channels aimed at resolving the US-Iran conflict, despite significant gaps remaining between the negotiating positions. Brent crude futures slipped 0.9 per cent to $102.13 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures eased 0.7 per cent to stand at $91.56.

A senior Iranian representative stated that Tehran is currently reviewing Washington’s counter-proposals, which center around lifting the naval blockade on Iranian harbors and reopening the vital Strait of Hormuz—topics addressed during recent indirect negotiations. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized that reaching a formal agreement will require sustained effort, while reiterating that military alternatives remain on the table.

Concurrently, energy traders closely monitored developments surrounding potential fuel curbs. Ultra-low-sulfur diesel futures experienced heavy volatility following media reports suggesting the administration was preparing a temporary 90-day ban on diesel exports. Although the White House disputed the claims, subsequent reports indicated industry leaders were privately advised to brace for possible trade restrictions, triggering warnings from analysts over potential global supply disruptions. Compounding market pressures, official data revealed an unexpected 3-million-barrel build in US crude inventories last week.

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