NEWSMARKET2 min

Middle East Tensions Weigh on Copper Prices as Arbitrage Trade to US Surges

Executive Summary
Escalating US-Iran conflicts and attacks in the Strait of Hormuz are driving global copper prices down. Meanwhile, tariff rumors make shipping the metal to the US highly profitable for traders.

Copper valuations on the London Metal Exchange (LME) are facing downward pressure due to a resurgence of hostilities in the Middle East. A series of fresh attacks has dampened market sentiment, significantly diminishing the prospects of a peace agreement between the United States and Iran.

This downward trend is mirrored across other major exchanges:

  • Comex (New York): Copper slipped by 0.93% to $6.2810 per pound.
  • SHF (Shanghai): The price dropped by 1.11% to 103,790 yuan per metric ton.

The market reaction follows the US military’s recent strike on Wednesday against an Iranian military installation, which was targeted for posing a threat to American forces and commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. In retaliation, Iranian state television Irib reported that Iranian forces fired upon four commercial vessels overnight into Thursday, claiming the ships attempted to navigate the strategic strait without prior coordination with Tehran.

Parallel to geopolitical tensions, copper traders are aggressively sourcing the metal globally for shipment to the United States, spurred by reignited speculation regarding potential US import tariffs. The widening price gap between the LME and Comex has made exporting copper to the US a lucrative endeavor once again. Investors suggest that this influx of copper into the US could drive domestic prices to unprecedented highs while simultaneously draining available inventory on the LME in London.

Despite the recent dips, it is worth noting that copper prices on the LME have still recorded a solid 8.92% gain since the beginning of 2026.

2002
OPERATIONAL
FERTILIZERS · UAN 32% LIQUID FERTILIZER (RSM): 1295 PLN / MTFERTILIZERS · UREA 46% GRANULAR ( GRADE B ): 384.5 USD / MTFERTILIZERS · NPK 14-18-18: 599.5 USD / MTFERTILIZERS · UREA 46% GRANULAR – AGRICULTURAL GRADE (B): 405 USD / MTFERTILIZERS · UREA 46% GRANULAR (B): 399.5 USD / MTFERTILIZERS · UREA 46% GRANULAR – AGRICULTURAL GRADE (B): 405 USD / MTFERTILIZERS · UAN 32% LIQUID FERTILIZER (RSM): 1295 PLN / MTFERTILIZERS · UREA 46% GRANULAR ( GRADE B ): 384.5 USD / MTFERTILIZERS · NPK 14-18-18: 599.5 USD / MTFERTILIZERS · UREA 46% GRANULAR – AGRICULTURAL GRADE (B): 405 USD / MTFERTILIZERS · UREA 46% GRANULAR (B): 399.5 USD / MTFERTILIZERS · UREA 46% GRANULAR – AGRICULTURAL GRADE (B): 405 USD / MT
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