1. Geopolitics & Energy (Strait of Hormuz Escalation)
Crude oil prices surged back above $90 a barrel following renewed military friction in the Middle East. U.S. strikes against Iranian missile launchers on Larak Island prompted retaliatory drone and missile attacks on U.S. positions in Jordan and the UAE. Concerns persist over Iran’s efforts to lay naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz and unverified claims regarding damage to the Kharg Island oil terminal. Despite six months of stalled diplomatic talks and ongoing shipping risks, naval escorts have helped Gulf oil exports partially recover from earlier lows, with tankers frequently operating covertly at night. Meanwhile, plans to rebuild the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve using Venezuelan crude face skepticism due to production delays.
2. Industrial Metals & Commodities (Copper & Coking Coal)
Copper prices are trending upward across the LME, Comex, and Shanghai exchanges, driven by robust demand from AI infrastructure, power grids, and electrification. Supply constraints are tightening as Chile’s Codelco reported an 11% drop in first-half production amid operational hurdles and rising energy costs. Concurrently, coking coal prices in China are heading toward historic monthly gains due to shrinking supply for the steel industry.
3. Precious Metals (Gold Retrenchment)
Gold prices have pulled back below the $4,400 per ounce threshold, reaching multi-day lows. The metal remains under pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar and elevated Treasury yields following hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium.
