European natural gas prices reached a four-year high on 14 September, with December futures trading above €83 per megawatt-hour. Reuters reported that this exceeded both the European Central Bank’s baseline assumption of €60.1/MWh for December and the €77/MWh level in its adverse scenario. Reuters, via Global Banking & Finance Review
The December quotation concerns wholesale delivery during that month. The price paid by an individual factory or household depends on its supply agreement and additional charges. Eurostat distinguishes energy costs from network charges and taxes, so wholesale market moves do not translate into identical bills for every buyer. ICE contract specifications, Eurostat methodology
Storage is a central concern. In its market report on Monday, TradingPedia cited Gas Infrastructure Europe figures showing underground inventories at approximately 68% of capacity, almost 17 percentage points below seasonal norms. JERA’s Yukio Kani also warned that Europe’s reserves remained low and shipping disruption around the Strait of Hormuz could persist. Together, limited stocks and uncertainty over LNG arrivals leave buyers facing a smaller buffer before winter demand rises. TradingPedia, 14 September 2026
On 14 September, Slovak central bank governor Peter Kažimír said gas and electricity were becoming a greater concern. He warned that the energy shock had lasted longer than expected and its full economic impact was still unfolding.
According to Kažimír, the longer elevated energy costs persist, the greater the risk that they become embedded in wages, prices and inflation expectations. He also expected food inflation to strengthen, with weather developments influencing its scale. National Bank of Slovakia, 14 September 2026
The ECB had already responded on 10 September by announcing a 25-basis-point increase in its three key interest rates. The deposit rate will rise to 2.50% on 16 September. Its new baseline forecasts put inflation at 3.0% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027. Further decisions will depend on incoming data; the bank has not committed to a fixed rate path. ECB monetary policy decision, 10 September 2026
