During a brief virtual meeting on Sunday, seven core members of the OPEC+ alliance—comprising Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman—voted to maintain their oil production targets for November. Market observers anticipate no further adjustments to output policy until next year. Gulf-based OPEC+ producers have been pumping well below their quotas due to ongoing export disruptions caused by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, with shipments fluctuating between 60% and 80% of normal levels in recent months. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo pointed out that while the group of seven kept their output ceilings unchanged, their actual production levels remain well below quota, leaving the global oil market tight.
Crude prices retreated on Friday after European leaders agreed to U.S. President Donald Trump’s request to release diesel and crude reserves. The G7 nations—France, Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the U.S.—announced in a joint statement that they will release 100 million barrels of reserves over the next four months, featuring a frontloaded, substantial diesel release within the first 20 days. Following the announcement, international benchmark Brent crude slipped 6 cents to settle at $102.25 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slid $1.76 to $91.11. Despite the G7 intervention, Brent remains above $100 a barrel, a sharp increase from about $73 before the Iran conflict broke out in late February.
The war has also derailed the group’s output capacity review, which is crucial for determining members’ 2027 production quotas due to uncertainties surrounding future output potential. Although OPEC+ has spent much of 2026 raising production targets following years of prior cuts, most of those increases have remained largely on paper because of Middle East hostilities. According to OPEC data, the seven core members pumped 25 million barrels per day (bpd) in August—an increase of 630,000 bpd from July, but still roughly 5 million bpd below prewar levels recorded in February. OPEC+ still maintains about 2 million bpd in output cuts covering most members, and it needs the results of the capacity review to decide how to distribute future increases, with structural changes unlikely before 2027. The core seven will meet next on November 1, following a Sunday market review conducted by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), a separate ministerial group that does not set policy.
