A Race Against Time Ahead of the Heating Season
The situation on the global thermal coal market is becoming increasingly tense, and raw material prices are rising dynamically. In Europe, the price per ton of coal has surpassed the 150-dollar mark, which is directly linked to the approaching winter season. Pressure is also evident in India, where the authorities have ordered Coal India to maximize extraction, and the rail sector to prioritize shipments to power plants. What is more, local captive coal units supplying industry have received a top-down mandate to operate at maximum capacity from October through the end of the year to prevent power outages.
Chinese Appetite for the Energy Commodity
Concurrently in China, driven by falling temperatures, power plants and heating facilities are rushing to rebuild their stockpiles. This process is most visible in the north and northeast of the country, where the heating season begins as early as mid-November. Jakub Szkopek, an analyst at Erste Securities Polska, points out that in September, Chinese production fell by nearly 7% year-on-year, driving domestic coal prices to their highest levels in three years. Despite the ongoing buying frenzy, Chinese industry organizations do not expect a nationwide paralysis—high import volumes, slightly weaker electricity demand, and forecasts of a mild winter are expected to guard against it.
Calm in the Coking Coal Market
The situation looks entirely different in the coking coal sector, which is essential for steelmaking. Prices remain steady at around 260–266 USD per ton in Australia and 217 USD in China. Chinese steel mills, grappling with a slump in the domestic construction and infrastructure sectors, are salvaging themselves through exports. In September, they shipped 10.5 million tons of steel abroad, exceeding the 10-million-ton threshold for the fifth consecutive month. Potential supply disruptions, such as the September 30 fire at the main mine of the Russian giant Raspadskaya, will not rattle the global market, though they may prompt Beijing to increase purchases from Australia and Mongolia.
A Strategic Insurance Policy
Coal remains an absolute cornerstone of the Chinese economy, which produced 4.83 billion tons of the commodity in 2025. As emphasized by Arkadiusz Siekaniec of the Miners’ Trade Union, Beijing maximizes the use of both its domestic reserves and imports, wasting no energy carrier. There, coal powers not only electricity generation or cement plants, but also a booming chemical sector. For the Middle Kingdom, coal-to-chemicals processing serves as a strategic security buffer, shielding the country from potential maritime blockades of crude oil and LNG supplies.
