Water-Soluble Fertilizers The main change in pricing has been lower WS SOP quotations out of East Asia, pressured heavily by rising freight rates and demand destruction. Most of the market is currently in standby mode or at the tail end of the season, leading to flat pricing. At the same time, severe supply-side disruptions persist because:
- Russian NOP (potassium nitrate) exports out of the Black Sea are severely impacted by the security situation.
- Chinese NOP export offers have dried up amid intensified customs inspections.
Key prices (as of September 8, 2026 | Low – High):
NOP:
- China fob: $790 – $820/t | ex works: 3,950 – 4,700 CNY/t
- NW Europe wholesale: €1,050 – €1,080/t | Spain wholesale: €1,000 – €1,050/t
- Turkey cfr: $830 – $880/t | India cfr: $850 – $975/t
- Mexico (East/West) cfr: $1,000 – $1,100/t | Brazil cfr: $1,000 – $1,100/t
MAP:
- China fob: $1,073 – $1,118/t | ex works: 6,900 – 7,100 CNY/t
- NW Europe wholesale: €1,800 – €1,900/t | Spain wholesale: €1,700 – €1,850/t
- India cfr: $1,600 – $1,680/t | Brazil cfr: $1,650 – $1,700/t
- Mexico cfr: $1,635 – $1,700/t (East) / $1,660 – $1,685/t (West)
- US cfr: $1,830 – $1,900/t (East) / $1,830 – $1,920/t (West)
- Turkey cfr: $1,600 – $1,630/t
Water-soluble SOP:
- Egypt fob: $750 – $760/t | East Asia fob: $770 – $790/t
- NW Europe fob (bagged): €760 – €860/t | Brazil cfr: $810 – $860/t
Inhibited Urea:
- Germany cif inland: €550 – €575/t |
- UK (bagged, delivered): £500 – £505/t
Low-Carbon Transition A groundbreaking development has taken place in the sustainability space. On September 7, Yara officially launched carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) operations at its ammonia plant in Sluiskil, Netherlands, with a capacity of 1.6mn t/yr. This is the first CCS ammonia plant to start operating in Europe, as well as Europe’s largest CO2 capture facility.
Carbon-Adjusted European Fertilizer Prices:
- Urea (granular bulk, fca NW Europe): €645.96/t
- UAN 30% N (fca NW Europe): €535.20/t
- AN 34% (bagged, fca NW Europe): €613.67/t
- DAP (fot/fob duty paid/free NW Europe): $1,051.05/t
- AS (granular caprolactam, carbon adjusted, fob NW Europe): $442.47/t
Trade Policy and Agricultural Support Regulatory issues and subsidies are strongly influencing market sentiment:
- Brazil launched its Profert program, designed to stimulate domestic fertilizer production and reduce import dependence.
- Poland and Portugal unveiled fresh farmer support packages aimed at offsetting high fertilizer costs.
- At the European level, debate continues: Germany’s fertilizer industry criticized proposed hectare-based aid, while leaders from Norway and Holland warn that weakening the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) will jeopardize investments in decarbonization.
30-Day Outlook For the first time since the Middle East crisis started, water-soluble fertilizer prices are either flatlining or turning downward. This stems directly from demand destruction, product substitution, and higher freight rates. It appears the market has hit a ceiling, which will translate into thin trade volumes through the rest of the third quarter. However, the scale of observed demand destruction could trigger permanent changes in buyer behavior and procurement strategies.
