Brent Crude Above the $90 Barrier
Brent oil prices have surged by 26% in March alone, and by half since the beginning of 2026. The primary drivers of this growth are reports of attacks on commercial vessels in the strategic Strait of Hormuz and damage to production infrastructure caused by Iranian drones.
Despite the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) decision to release record strategic reserves (300–400 million barrels), the market remains skeptical. Experts point out that these reserves cannot fully replace the interrupted production in the Persian Gulf region. History from 2022 shows that such interventions rarely curb price pressure permanently when a real military threat is at play.
The End of Cheap Money Dreams?
The sharp spike in energy prices is forcing central banks to drastically change course. Just a few days ago, the market expected interest rate cuts; today, the narrative is the opposite.
ECB: Representatives of the European Central Bank suggest that a rate hike could occur much sooner than expected (even in 2026).
UK: Gilt yields are rising, and the market has almost entirely moved away from pricing in rate cuts this year.
Not Just Fuel—The Crisis Hits Agriculture and Industry
For traders operating in commodity markets, the most concerning aspect is the „domino effect” in the agro and industrial sectors. The paralysis of trade routes means not only more expensive fuel but, above all, a threat to the supply of fertilizers and feed components.
This month alone, drastic price spikes were recorded:
Cocoa: up nearly 20%,
Coffee and Wheat: up by 5%.
If the paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz persists, agricultural production costs (fertilizers) and transportation may permanently raise food prices worldwide.
What’s Next? Anticipating US Data
All market participants are awaiting today’s US CPI inflation data. This will be crucial in assessing whether the US economy has a sufficient „buffer” to survive the current energy shock without a deep recession. For now, sentiment remains reactive—it is the headlines from the front line that are dictating the terms of the game.
